How the predictor works

The predictor compares your rank with published historical closing ranks. It does not estimate future cutoffs and it never shows a percentage chance — the labels describe what happened in past counselling, under the rules below (rule set v1).

The data

The current dataset (version 4) is compiled from the allotment results published by the Medical Counselling Committee (MCC) and state counselling authorities. It holds 88,205 seat options. Of 3,30,931 closing ranks imported from the source spreadsheets, 3,26,310 are in use (the rest were excluded because they failed reconciliation); reconciliation used 2,99,012 individual allotment records. A closing rank for a round is the highest rank still holding that seat (college × course × quota × category) after the round; the number in brackets is the number of seats allotted in that round.

• Where a counselling published a per-candidate allotment list for a year, its closing ranks for that year were reconciled against the list before publication (table below). Sheets that disagree badly are excluded, not “fixed”. Counsellings without an allotment list are marked “Not cross-checked” on every result.
• The allotment lists come from the same compiled spreadsheets; nothing has yet been checked against the authorities' official PDFs.
• Missing years and rounds are shown as unavailable. Nothing is estimated or filled in.
• Fees, stipends and bonds are reproduced as listed by the source and are not independently verified.

Like-for-like comparison

• Your All India Rank is compared only with AIR cutoffs. A state merit rank, if you enter one, is compared only with that state's state-rank cutoffs.
• Each option is compared within its own counselling scheme, quota, seat category and round.
• By default your rank is compared with Round 1 cutoffs — the round you fill choices for first. You can switch to Round 2, Round 3 or the final round of each year.

Eligibility comes first

Seat categories and quotas are specific to each counselling authority (for example, a state's backward-class groups are not the same as the central OBC list). Domicile, PwD, women, service, NRI, minority, institutional and special-reservation conditions are applied before anything is labelled. Seats whose category or quota rule is not yet verified against the authority's information bulletin are hidden by default — the results page says how many were hidden and lets you include them, marked “eligibility unverified”. Restricted seats (NRI, minority, institutional, PwD, in-service) appear only if you declare that eligibility.

The labels

• Safe Bet Your rank was inside the cutoff in every comparable year, at most 80% of the toughest year's cutoff, with at least 2 years of history.
• Good Chance Inside every comparable cutoff, but with a thinner margin or too little history for Safe Bet. A “close call” tag appears when the cushion is under 500 ranks.
• Toss-up Inside the cutoff in some comparable years and outside it in others.
• Opens Later Outside the selected round's cutoff, but a later round of the same year reached your rank.
• Long Shot Outside every comparable cutoff, but within 5% of the most permissive one.
• Historically Unlikely Well beyond every comparable cutoff.
• Insufficient History No comparable cutoff was published.

Cards also flag cutoffs set by a single seat (they can swing sharply between years), records with open data-quality flags, and cutoffs that moved more than 10% between the first and latest year.

What the labels are not

• They are not probabilities and have not been statistically calibrated.
• They do not mean a seat exists or is vacant this year — seat matrices change.
• They are not a substitute for the official counselling information bulletin.

Questions about a specific record? Tell us — every correction is reviewed and logged with its source.